Jeff Bezos is frequently asked: ‘What’s going to change in the next ten years?’. But he never gets asked, ‘What’s not going to change in the next ten years?’ And this is what he considers the more important question. It can be dangerous to predict trends; you know what they say about assuming! But it’s clear we’re headed for a recession, which means it’s time for marketers to get creative and use tried and true knowledge to make the money stretch a little further. We’ve decided to look back at some of the strangest recession indicators and their less obvious effects to see what clever areas marketers could exploit in 2023.  

     1. Lipstick index 

The worse the economy looks; the more people buy little luxuries (or affordable luxuries). Lipstick and nail varnish sales benefit from a recession. Leonard Lauder, chairman of Estee Lauder, said the index shows that women turn to lipstick instead of more expensive indulgences like handbags and shoes during hard times. 

     2. High heels  

On the same theme, research has found that when the economy is in low spirits, consumers look for a means to escape reality, and fashion is as good a spot as anywhere. According to the Huffington Post: “In an economic downturn, heels go up and stay up — as consumers turn to a more flamboyant fashion as a means of fantasy”. Cue increased blister plaster sales! The high heels phenomenon is initially an attempt to escape reality and/or feign wealth but beware of the tide turning as long periods of austerity lead to the lowering of heels.  

     3. Declining divorce rates 

Divorce costs a lot of time, money, and energy. In a recession, there are typically fewer divorces as couples struggle on, feeling ‘priced out’ of going it alone. However, the pandemic’s forced togetherness, along with the new no-fault divorce legislation, has increased divorce rates. This leaves divorces in 2023 in flux; maybe there will be a rise in sales of self-help books instead, as a recession may cause a delay in divorces, but ultimately it does not prevent the inevitable. 

     4. Romance novels  

Along with other non-essential conveyors, most booksellers struggle to attract readers. In the 2008 global financial crisis, however, the romance novel publisher Harlequin Enterprises reported a 32% increase in sales. Romance novels offer an escape from reality, and romance readers being particularly loyal and tend to stick to a series or author. Also, romance novels are often cheaper than other books and are more widely available (think supermarkets and airports), making a juicy romance unmissable. Publishers could up the ante (and the profits) by ensuring romance novels are accessible in e-book and audiobook format too. 

     5. The bike fatality index  

According to figures from the Department for Transport, the number of cyclists killed in the UK has risen during three of the last four recessions. The rise in fatalities is likely due to an increase in the number of cyclists. Data suggests that commuters show a greater tendency to swap expensive train, car, and tube travel for bicycles during periods of austerity. With the already swollen cycle lanes of post-pandemic, cyclists will want to invest in safety gear. Now might be a good time for cycling brands to peddle safety and educate cyclists on road awareness; this alignment could help attract new cyclists.  

     6. Unclaimed bodies  

Many recession indicators are bleak, but perhaps none are as bleak as the unclaimed corpse indicator. In the UK, the average funeral cost is £4,000 to £5,000. In 2021 there were 6,000 pauper’s funerals (basic funerals paid for by their local council that don’t include a service or flowers). A recession is not a good time to be a florist nor die without your ID! 

     7. Men’s underwear  

While women find little ways to enjoy themselves, men have different outlooks. Men tend to cut costs by deciding not to replace underpants. In the 1970s, Alan Greenspan looked at the sales of men’s underwear as an economic indicator. Sales rose in good times but dipped when men had less money and were trying to cut back on spending.  Marketing professionals should look at the main themes of recessions; escapism, affordable luxuries and simple cost-cutting and adjust their strategies accordingly. 

From the data, it’s clear that women have a better handle on recessions than men, particularly when it comes to handling change which can be a great asset in times of economic uncertainty! Women have the right idea – indulge in a nice lipstick, rock a pair of high heels and enjoy a good romance novel. Men, on the other hand, should take a lesson from women and invest in their health, self, and new underwear!